全球政經動盪之際，豪宅市場展現抗震韌性與續航力 「當前經濟局勢充滿不確定性，但對高資產族群而言，這意味著機會仍持續存在。」 — Selma Hepp，Cotality 首席經濟學家 房地產作為穩定投資工具的觀念仍具有韌性，預期將在 2025 年持續吸引投資者。儘管關稅影響與通膨壓力持續存在，全球豪宅市場仍將持續帶來機會。《紐約時報》 2025 年 6 月報導指出，美國勞工統計局公布的數據優於經濟學家的預期，但若關稅維持不變，消費者物價上漲可能會在 2025 年第四季達到高峰。 「 2024 年豪宅市場表現強勁，超越多數地區的預期。」蘇富比國際房地產總裁暨執行長 Philip A. White Jr. 表示：「蘇富比國際房地產品牌於美國的銷售額成長率達 9.4%，遠高於美國全國不動產經紀人協會 ( NAR ) 所公布的 5.2% 全體市場成長率。」 2024 年至 2025 年初的豪宅銷售之所以優於整體市場，是因為高資產族群偏好持有實體資產，且能以現金購買，無須承擔高利率貸款風險。蘇富比國際房地產品牌於 2024 年全球銷售總額達 1,570 億美元，創下歷史佳績，其全球轉介網絡也帶來了 46 億美元的成交額。 White 表示：「這些數據顯示豪宅房地產作為一項投資資產具有吸引力，我們精明的客戶非常了解這一點，他們尋求的不只是生活方式的提升，我們的表現反映了品牌的全球網絡優勢、經紀人專業與獨特的品牌定位，這些不僅是幫助我們應對豪宅市場變化，更是積極塑造市場的重要因素。」 《華爾街日報》 2025 年 5 月報導指出，2025 年 2 月 1 日 ~ 5 月 1 日期間，價格 1,000 萬美元以上的豪宅銷售量與 2024 年同期相比大幅上升：佛羅里達州棕櫚灘成長 50%、邁阿密 48%、科羅拉多州阿斯本 44%、加州比佛利山莊 33%、洛杉磯 29%、紐約曼哈頓 21%。 2025 年部分市場的熱度仍延續自 2024 年，只要訂價合理，即可快速成交。他指出，目前市場信心來自兩大因素：第一，全球主要國家的選舉年已過，減少高資產族群的不確定感；第二，儘管部分地區庫存量上升，但高端住宅庫存仍偏低，將繼續推升價格與資產價值。 根據 Realtor.com® 於 2025 年 4 月發布的報告，2024 年美國最富有家庭的房地產資產價值成長幅度最大。2025 年 2 月，成交價格超過 100 萬美元的住宅佔全美既有住宅銷售的 7.6%，明顯高於 2023 年的 5%。然而，即便房地產價值上揚，2024 年底最富裕前 10% 家庭配置於房地產的資產比例仍從兩年前的 19.9% 略降至 18.7%。相較之下，企業股票與共同基金的資產配置則創下新高，占總資產的 36.3%；不過在股市波動影響下，這一比重已回落至約三分之一，與 2023 年底水準相當。 掌握百萬美元房市脈動 該報告指出，2025 年初，美國高價住宅新上市量減少，但需求依然強勁，成交速度優於中價位住宅。2025 年部分月份，中低價住宅的降價比例上升至 22.6%，而高端住宅僅由 13% 微升至 13.6%。 報告也指出，股市與地緣政治波動可能會推升豪宅交易：「 2025 年開局強勁，儘管股市創高，但在關稅政策反覆與政策不確定下，部分富裕買家轉向感覺較安全的房地產市場。」 潛在投資者在尋找物件時將面臨競爭。J.P. Morgan 2025 年 2 月的研究顯示，整體住宅供應不足，部分原因在於近十年新建住宅數量不足，另一因素則是利率上升。自 2022 年 3 月起利率上升後，低於 4% 的房貸戶選擇續住而非換屋，使得房市庫存進一步受限。 UBS 瑞銀集團於 2024 年 9 月發佈的全球房地產泡沫指數報告指出，利率高企亦將持續推升各市場價格：「央行升息意外為下一波房價上漲奠定基礎。利率大幅上升打亂了建商的開發計畫，許多城市的新建案大幅減少，導致供給不足，未來勢將加劇價格上行壓力。」 豪宅市場的續航力 豪宅市場與一般住宅市場之間的表現差距預期將在 2025 年持續擴大。房地產數據分析公司 Cotality 首席經濟學家 Selma Hepp 表示：「當前經濟局勢充滿不確定性，但對高所得族群而言，這意味著機會。 美國新政府推動的減稅政策對高資產者有利，他們不太擔心通膨或失業風險，因為他們有投資組合做為緩衝。」 因此，豪宅市場預計將持續活躍，並出現高價新上市物件。例如，Bing Crosby 位於加州 Hillsborough 區的故居於 2025 年 3 月由 Golden Gate Sotheby’s International Realty 上市，6 月即以 2,500 萬美元成交，創下當地兩年來最高價。此外，德國波羅的海沿岸一座佔地 185 英畝的城堡亦於 2025 年 3 月以 2.01 億美元上市。 自 2024 年中接手紐約 111 West 57th Street 項目後，Sotheby’s International Realty 的 Nikki Field 團隊加快推進銷售進度，推出全美最高樓層四層式頂樓宅「 Quadplex 」，標價 1.1 億美元，截至 2025 年 5 月已簽訂 10 份合約、累積成交與簽約金額超過 2.85 億美元，售出率達 81%，其中包含頂樓 Penthouse 72 以 4,690 萬美元成交。 White 表示：「高淨值買家仍活躍參與，特別是在超高端市場，獨特物件仍可享有溢價。」 White 補充：「我們的經驗顯示，具備良好定位與獨特設施的豪宅仍能吸引買家。即便地緣政治帶來不穩定，市場供給與潛在買盤仍表現積極。我們觀察到投資組合表現將影響豪宅買家的購屋決策，但若出現合適物件，他們仍可能立即出手。例如 2025 年 3 月，杜拜 Sotheby’s International Realty 成交 Jumeirah Bay Island 上一座 9,000 萬美元的別墅，打破其 2024 年 6,550 萬美元的銷售紀錄。」 義大利最昂貴的住宅交易亦於 2025 年 3 月誕生：一棟擁有 28 間臥室、兩座私人沙灘、三座泳池與兩座碼頭的海濱別墅，以 1.728 億美元售出，買賣雙方皆由 Sotheby’s International Realty 義大利分公司代理。 White 表示：「高資產人士通常會密切關注股市與金融指標。不過我們也看到，儘管其他市場板塊波動加劇現金買家在市場上的活躍度仍很高，成為豪宅市場的主要驅動力之一。」 文章節錄自 Sotheby’s International Realty 2025 奢華趨勢展望報告           AN EYE ON THE MARKET The luxury property landscape is anticipated to remain strong amid global turbulence throughout 2025 The enduring view of real estate as a stable investment is anticipated to contribute to its continued appeal in 2025, with opportunities in global luxury property markets persisting despite ongoing concerns about tariff impacts and inflation. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics beat economists' expectations according to a June 2025 report in The New York Times, although anticipation is growing that consumer price increases could peak in the fourth quarter of 2025 if tariffs remain in place. “ The luxury real estate market saw a strong finish in 2024, meeting and even surpassing expectations in several areas, ” says Philip A. White Jr., president and CEO, Sotheby’s International Realty. “ The Sotheby’s International Realty brand’s U.S. sales volume growth outpaced the broader market in 2024, achieving 9.4%, compared to the industry’s 5.2% overall market growth reported by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). ” Luxury property purchases in 2024 and early in 2025 outperformed the rest of the market because of the continued appeal of owning hard assets and the ability of upper bracket buyers to pay cash rather than borrow at higher interest rates, White says. Globally, the Sotheby’s International Realty brand achieved US$157 billion in 2024 sales volume, marking one of its best years ever, and its global referral network generated US$4.6 billion. “ These numbers demonstrate the appeal of luxury real estate as an investment—something our discerning clients understand well as they continue to seek exceptional properties that offer both lifestyle benefits and reliable portfolio diversification across multiple countries and markets, ” White says. “ Our performance reflects the strength of the brand’s unparalleled global network, the expertise of our affiliated agents and our iconic brand positioning, all of which provide clients with greater access to properties, prospects and market insights — key differentiators that have enabled us to not just respond to the luxury real estate landscape but actively help shape it. ” Sales of properties at US$10 million and above soared between February 1 and May 1, 2025, compared to that same period in 2024, according to analysis published in May 2025 by The Wall Street Journal. Sales were up 50% in Palm Beach, Florida ; 48% in Miami, Florida ; 44% in Aspen, Colorado ; 33% in Beverly Hills, California ; 29% in Los Angeles, California ; and 21% in Manhattan, New York, according to the report. The strength of sales in the 2024 luxury real estate market continued in some markets in 2025, White says, with properties that were priced correctly selling quickly. The assurances felt around the luxury real estate market stems from two main themes. First, a volatile global election year is over, removing some elements of uncertainty for wealthy individuals. Second, while inventory is growing in some areas, an inventory shortage of luxury homes is anticipated to continue to push prices higher, increasing the value of property portfolios. In the U.S., the top half of the wealthiest households saw the biggest gains in real estate value among all homeowners in 2024, according to an April 2025 report by Realtor.com®. Sales of US$1-million-plus properties made up 7.6% of all existing home sales in the U.S. in February 2025, compared to 5% in 2023. But among the 10% wealthiest households, real estate represented 18.7% of their total assets in late 2024, down from 19.9% two years earlier, despite gains in value. In late 2024, 36.3% of the assets among this group of households comprised corporate equities and mutual fund shares, the highest share ever recorded. However, recent stock market volatility is likely to have dropped that share back to one-third, similar to the end of 2023. The Realtor.com® report also found that in early 2025, there were fewer properties priced over US$1 million being listed for sale but demand for expensive homes remained high, with those homes selling faster than median-priced ones. Price cuts in the first few months of 2025 were more common for lower-priced homes, rising to 22.6%, while high-end properties stayed more stable, with only a slight increase from 13% to 13.6%. The report also noted that volatility in the stock market and geopolitics could drive luxury home sales higher : “ While 2025 started off strong, with bullish predictions and record highs, markets grappled with on-then-off-again tariffs and uncertainty over the impact of the current policy decisions. Moves like deregulation and potential tax cuts could help the economy and markets, but the unpredictability is pushing some wealthy investors toward real estate, which feels safer than stocks, ” according to the report. Resilience in the luxury property market The gap in performance between the regular and luxury housing markets is anticipated to continue in 2025, amid headwinds caused by changing political and economic dynamics. “ Everything in the economy is uncertain at the moment, but in the high-income world, that translates to opportunities, ” says Selma Hepp, chief economist, Cotality, a property data analytics firm. “ Many of the policy changes promised by the new administration in the U.S.—such as tax cuts—are advantageous to HNWIs. In addition, wealthier households have more resources and are less concerned about inflation and unemployment. No one is immune to uncertainty, but it’s less of a concern for HNWIs because they have investments.” This buffer means that activity in the luxury real estate market is anticipated to continue at its current pace, with new luxury listings coming to market at notable price points. For example, in March 2025, the former home of singer Bing Crosby in Lower North Hillsborough, California, was listed by Golden Gate Sotheby’s International Realty and was quickly sold by June 2025 for US$25 million, marking the highest sale in the region in more than two years. Also in March 2025, Sylt Sotheby’s International Realty listed a castle set among 185 acres on Germany’s Baltic coast for US$201 million. Since Nikki Field, global real estate advisor, Sotheby’s International Realty - East Side Manhattan Brokerage, and her team took over sales at 111 West 57th St. in mid-2024, they have accelerated momentum at the iconic tower. The team listed the tallest “ Quadplex ” penthouse in the U.S.—soaring over Billionaire’s Row at more than 1,000 feet in the air, with a lofty price to match: US$110 million—and had done over US$285 million in sales (covering both closings and contracts signed). As of May 2025, the team had signed 10 contracts and announced that the building is 81% sold, including a recent closing of Penthouse 72 for US$46.9 million. “ High-net-worth buyers remain actively engaged, particularly in the ultra-luxury real estate segment, where unique properties continue to command premium prices, ” White says. “ EVERYTHING IN THE ECONOMY IS UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT, BUT IN THE HIGH-INCOME WORLD, THAT TRANSLATES TO OPPORTUNITIES ” Selma Hepp, chief economist, Cotality Source: Visit the Sotheby’s International Realty 2025 Luxury Outlook report for essential insights.